Final week of Canada election sees tightening race, but Liberals maintain lead:

A recent Ipsos poll commissioned by Global News reveals that while the Liberals continue to hold the lead in the election race, their advantage is narrowing, with just a three-point margin over the Conservatives, who are gaining traction as the campaign draws closer to the finish line.

Following last week's televised leaders' debates, the survey indicates that 41% of Canadians would back the Liberals, a decrease of one point from the previous week. In contrast, the Conservatives have risen by two points to 38%.
The New Democrats have garnered 12% support, marking a one-point increase, while the Bloc Quebecois has slipped by one point to 5% nationally, although they maintain 25% support in Quebec. Both the Green Party and the People's Party of Canada received 2% support. The three-point gap between the leading parties falls within the poll's margin of error of 3.8%, representing the smallest lead since the campaign began last month. While just over half of voters indicated a preference for a majority government, compared to 20% favoring a minority, the tightening race diminishes the likelihood of a majority government outcome, according to Ipsos. Just two weeks ago, the Liberals enjoyed a 12-point lead, a significant turnaround for a party that struggled in the polls behind the Conservatives during Justin Trudeau's tenure. The election of Mark Carney as Trudeau's successor has revitalized the party, particularly in light of U.S. President Donald Trump's threats towards Canada's economy and sovereignty—a key issue voters feel the Liberals are better equipped to manage. Despite the Liberal lead, the Conservatives have been gaining ground, focusing on issues of affordability, housing, and the economy. Darrell Bricker, CEO of Ipsos Public Affairs, noted, "The Trump issue is fading into the background, and we're seeing a resurgence in domestic issues, particularly personal affordability, which benefits the Conservatives." Trump has reduced his antagonistic rhetoric towards Canada following a recent phone call with Carney, who is currently serving as prime minister while campaigning as Liberal leader. Carney continues to be preferred over Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre as the choice for Prime Minister, with 41% support for Carney compared to 36% for Poilievre—no change from last week.

Debate Outcomes Divisive Among Voters: The Ipsos poll indicates mixed opinions regarding who benefited most from the leaders' debates, with 57% of Canadians either watching or hearing about them. Approximately one-third of respondents felt that both Carney and Poilievre performed well in the English-language debate, though Carney had a slight edge with 33% support against Poilievre's 30%. In the French-language debate, 24% said Poilievre emerged victorious while 18% favored Carney. Twelve percent chose Bloc Quebecois Leader Yves-François Blanchet as the winner. Between 2% and 3% believed NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh won either debate, with one-third of voters stating Singh underperformed and only 10% feeling he exceeded expectations. Despite the Conservatives' recent gains, 45% of those who followed the debates believe the Liberals are enjoying the most momentum, compared to 29% who feel the Conservatives are making comparable progress. Ipsos interpreted the Conservative figures as indicative of an emerging underdog effect. Carney Viewed as Strong Leader While Poilievre Gains Ground: Conservative attack campaigns are becoming increasingly visible, with some viewing Conservative candidate accusations as an attempt at an election "repression operation." Among the survey participants, Carney remains the preferred leader across various positive attributes, including economic management, international representation, and standing up to Trump—leading Poilievre by substantial margins in these areas. However, Carney's support has declined over the past two weeks in other areas as well. Trustworthiness ratings have dropped five points to 27%, and the belief that he will fulfill his election promises has also fallen to 25%, tying with Poilievre. Conversely, Poilievre is perceived as the candidate who will advocate for the middle class, gaining one point to 28%, while Carney's rating on this issue has fallen seven points to 24%. Poilievre has similarly increased slightly in his perceived ability to wisely manage public funds, but at 28%, he still lags behind Carney's 32%. Bricker noted, "Carney excels at broad economic issues, yet when it comes to practical, everyday financial matters, the Conservatives, and Poilievre in particular, hold an advantage, which has been consistent throughout the campaign." While Poilievre leads Carney in some negative perceptions, including being viewed as having a hidden agenda, voters are divided on whether the Liberals deserve re-election (46%, a two-point increase) or if it's time for a change (54%, a two-point decrease). Half of those surveyed expressed approval of the current government. Regionally, the Conservatives lead the Liberals in British Columbia by 44% to 43%, along with stronger advantages in Alberta, Saskatchewan, and Manitoba. The Liberals lead in other regions, including Quebec, where the Bloc Quebecois exceeds the Conservatives, 25% to 22%. Bricker remarked, "It's difficult to predict whether the outcome will result in a majority or minority government based on the current vote distribution." These insights stem from an Ipsos poll conducted from April 17 to April 19, 2025, for Global News.

The survey included a sample of 1,001 Canadians aged 18 and older, interviewed online using both panel and non-panel sources, with measures taken to ensure demographic representation. The poll's accuracy is rated within ±3.8 percentage points, 19 times out of 20, had the entire Canadian population been surveyed. The credibility interval will vary among population subsets, and all surveys may face additional errors. Ipsos adheres to the disclosure standards set by the Canadian Research Insights Council.
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