US President Donald Trump is urging Vladimir Putin to agree to a ceasefire

US President Donald Trump is urging Vladimir Putin to agree to a ceasefire in Ukraine, emphasizing that "it takes two to tango." However, the Russian president may adopt a cautious stance.
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Ukraine's recent agreement to a 30-day ceasefire during discussions with the US in Saudi Arabia shifts the focus onto Russia, compelling it to consider halting its prolonged conflict that has lasted three years.

It would be challenging for Putin to categorically reject this proposal at such an early stage in the developing US-Russia relationship. The Kremlin has taken pleasure in observing Trump pressuring Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy while simultaneously accommodating Russia's perspective with minimal demands in return.

Despite this, a ceasefire is likely to be unwelcome for Moscow, as its forces are currently advancing to expel Ukrainian troops from Russia's Kursk region and maintain an advantageous position on the eastern front. The Kremlin may argue that any pause in hostilities would provide Ukraine with the opportunity to rearm and bolster its defenses.

Putin's advisors will have likely strategized Russia's potential responses prior to the arrival of Trump's envoy, Steve Witkoff, in Moscow this week for a follow-up meeting with the president.

Russia might consider accepting a ceasefire without conditions to gain favor with Trump, potentially paving the way for a summit where Putin could directly influence his US counterpart.

However, it is more probable that Putin will impose conditions to shift the pressure back onto Zelenskiy, possibly by insisting on elections in Ukraine during the ceasefire, a notion that has also been suggested by the US.

This scenario would enable Russian interference aimed at creating divisions within Ukraine. The ambiguity surrounding the monitoring of the ceasefire could lead to violations that the Kremlin might exploit to hold Kyiv accountable for any collapse of the agreement.

Achieving a ceasefire would represent a significant accomplishment for Trump, yet sustaining it would prove to be considerably more challenging. The critical question remains whether Trump will persist in advocating for a resolution or choose to disengage.

Meanwhile, Russia continues to demonstrate no intention of relinquishing its aspirations to exert control over Ukraine.

While Putin may entertain Trump's overture for cooperation, he remains strategically active.
Source;Tony Halpim

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