Unusual Polling Data: Election Day Approaches in Canada

As Election Day approaches, POLITICO's Canadian political experts analyze a tumultuous campaign.
Canadians are set to vote on Monday in a snap election that is poised to be remembered as one of the most extraordinary campaigns in the nation's history. Just a few months ago, Pierre Poilievre and the Conservative Party had a commanding 25-point lead.

However, this lead has drastically diminished due to a combination of President Donald Trump's provocative statements and the resignation of former Prime Minister Justin Trudeau after nearly a decade in office. Currently, many analysts expect Mark Carney, who succeeded Trudeau as the Liberal leader and prime minister in March, to secure a strong mandate to confront Trump. The newcomer has been emphasizing his credentials from leading both the Bank of Canada and the Bank of England during his campaign.

But could there still be an upset? What are the potential outcomes in key regions? To gauge how Election Day might unfold, we organized a POLITICO roundtable to share insights, observations, and forecasts. Participants included POLITICO's Ottawa bureau chief Nick Taylor-Vaisey, Canada Playbook author Mickey Djuric, polling analyst and POLITICO contributor Philippe J. Fournier, along with editors Calder McHugh and Catherine Kim, who reported from Canada throughout the campaign. With the results imminent, here's what you need to know. This conversation has been edited for conciseness and clarity.

Panelists:
- Sue Allan: Canada editor, POLITICO
- Mickey Djuric: Ottawa-based reporter, POLITICO
- Philippe J. Fournier: 338Canada founder and POLITICO contributor
- Catherine Kim: Assistant editor, POLITICO Magazine - Calder McHugh: Deputy editor, POLITICO Nightly
- Nick Taylor-Vaisey: Ottawa bureau chief, POLITICO

Canada's 37-day snap election has largely revolved around one figure. From your close reporting, do you believe the central ballot question is: "Who can best oppose Donald Trump?" Djuric: The main question at the ballot box is still taking shape this late in the campaign, and we won't fully grasp it until Election Day. The Liberals are spotlighting Trump as it plays to their polling advantage and taps into public apprehensions related to U.S. relations.

In contrast, the Conservatives have maintained a disciplined focus on cost-of-living issues, demonstrating resistance to becoming ensnared in discussions about the president. Younger Canadians are increasingly backing Poilievre, with affordability and housing being their primary concerns. Meanwhile, older Canadians seem more preoccupied with the implications of Trump.

The outcome may hinge on which generation dominates the voter turnout. Fournier: There's no doubt that Trump's role has significantly influenced the perceptual shift we've observed in public opinion. It wasn't merely a case of "Trump antagonizes Canada, hence it benefits the Liberals." The data indicates a yearning for change from the Trudeau administration while seeking a centrist alternative. Mark Carney emerged as a candidate who resonates with swing voters, while Conservative messaging was slow to adapt. Many voters seemed set in their decisions by the time Carney announced the election. Remarkably, polling averages have shown little fluctuation since.
Taylor-Vaisey: I concur with Mickey regarding the campaign's fluidity. Indeed, two key ballot issues have contended for attention over the past five weeks. Trump is the pivotal figure in this narrative, hands down. An array of voters, even those previously disinterested in market dynamics, are now checking "Dow futures" regularly. The initial weeks especially revolved around Trump-related issues: tariffs, national unity, etc. However, living costs have become a significant concern, particularly for younger voters, and for some, the two issues seem to entwine.
Kim: I think Trump's recent cessation of frequent attacks on Canada has also contributed to this shift. His relative silence has allowed citizens to focus on other pressing matters.
McHugh: Building on Philippe's observation, prior to Carney's election announcement, the polls showed a noteworthy upswing for the Liberals. The campaign has appeared relatively static since then, suggesting a rapid shift toward issues that resonate with many Canadians. Affordability and housing remain critical to Canadians I've spoken with, but many acknowledge that Trump's influence casts a long shadow. While the Conservatives may hold a more favorable position than polling suggests, their campaign pivot appears less effective. Their ongoing emphasis on cost-of-living issues seems to rely on the hope that voters will overlook Trump's fading presence in national dialogue. Taylor-Vaisey: It's important to note that 7.3 million Canadians have already cast their votes in advance polls, indicating they have moved on from these discussions. The ballot question has likely already been settled for them. Nick, if this election is
— as some have suggested
— a referendum on whether Canada will embrace or reject populism, what lessons may arise for the global community?

Taylor-Vaisey:  Prior to Justin Trudeau's exit from politics, it was widely believed that the electoral outcome was already determined before the campaign even began. A notoriously unpopular prime minister faced a global pivot toward populism, especially on the right. Those assumptions quickly vanished with Trudeau's departure and Carney stepping into the role. One takeaway for others might be: Donald Trump is unpredictable and can drastically alter a G7 nation's political landscape at will. Trump exerts considerable influence over trade partners with limited alternatives. A second takeaway is that dependency on the United States represents a significant vulnerability going forward. Fournier: The rapid decline of the Conservatives' 25-point edge left many observers astonished. What single term would encapsulate the campaign's drastic turn? Fournier: Initially, it appeared astonishing, but in hindsight, it reveals much about the mindset of the average Canadian voter. For two years, Poilievre had focused primarily on aggressive attacks — against Trudeau, the Bloc Québécois, NDP leader Jagmeet Singh, and local leaders. While this resonated with his base, winning requires expanding his coalition beyond this core support. As for the 25-point lead? It'll be a lesson in history — no lead in polling is ever safe. This campaign was anticipated to be a "change election," with the Liberals seeking a fourth mandate — a rarity in Canada. What, then, do Canadians seem to favor instead of change? Taylor-Vaisey: Mark Carney is attempting the seemingly impossible: to campaign on change. He's scrapped a controversial carbon tax — a signature of the Trudeau administration — and reversed unpopular capital gains tax adjustments. Carney is positioning himself as a candidate for stability amid Trump's unpredictability, aiming to allure both disillusioned Liberal voters and lukewarm Conservatives by asserting he is fundamentally different from Trudeau. If successful, he may gain seats in traditionally conservative areas like Calgary, causing distress for Conservative strategists. Djuric: Throughout my on-the-ground reporting, Trudeau's presence has felt minimal, with Liberal supporters rarely mentioning him unless prompted. Many candidates concede that if Trudeau were still in the picture, the discourse would center around him. They attribute their electoral gains to Carney's revitalizing presence. Numerous voters expressed disdain for Trudeau's demeanor but are again rallying behind the party with Carney at the helm. Conservative supporters, however, tend to reference Trudeau at Poilievre's events, struggling to understand why Canadians would endorse another Liberal mandate, believing Carney's policies would mirror Trudeau's. Kim: In Brantford, historically a Conservative stronghold, I found people still venting their frustrations about Trudeau while notably overlooking Carney. For many Conservatives, Trudeau continues to be the defining figure for the Liberals, reflecting that Poilievre's messaging has effectively resonated with specific demographics. McHugh: My experiences in Quebec, where 78 seats are contested, revealed a robust separatist movement, with the Bloc Québécois focusing solely on candidates within the province. However, as Philippe noted, Carney enjoys significant support in Quebec. Blanchet, the Bloc's leader, has mounted a formidable campaign while the NDP suffers from decreased influence. Traveling across the nation, there's an inspiring sense of pride among Quebecers embracing their Canadian identity — a sentiment previously uncommon, largely driven by rising nationalism in response to Trump's actions. This shift bodes well for Carney, who stands to capture several seats historically dominated by Liberals. Fournier: We might witness unexpected shifts in Quebec's electoral landscape. Nationalist feelings are prevalent in suburban Montreal, and recent polling trends show the Liberals leading in areas where they haven't in decades. Carney's popularity in Quebec appears to be bolstering the Liberals broadly. If Pierre Poilievre and the Conservatives were to achieve an unexpected win, what would that scenario entail? Djuric: The Conservatives' route to victory is complex. They will require progressive voters to support the NDP and increased support for the Bloc Québécois in Quebec beyond current predictions. Historically, these smaller parties have often divided the Liberal vote, benefiting Conservativism. However, this election is witnessing diminishing support for those minor parties, inadvertently aiding the Liberals. While Conservatives typically dominate in the mid-west, the relatively low population doesn't translate to significant wins. To secure victory, they must gain ground in the Greater Toronto Area — a traditionally Liberal bastion — while also expanding their presence in Quebec and Atlantic Canada. Every existing Conservative seat also remains crucial. Fournier: If current polling trends persist through to Election Day, and the Conservatives emerge victorious, it would create turmoil within the Canadian polling sector. Approximately two-thirds of Canadians live within 60 miles of the U.S. Many of you have engaged with communities near the border, witnessing the repercussions of Trump's trade policies. Is there a prevailing sentiment that this division is lasting? Fournier: Perhaps not permanent, but certainly deep. Anecdotally, I know many who have canceled trips to the U.S. this summer, signaling a desire for recovery. Taylor-Vaisey: The rift currently feels enduring, but it may also be transient. These border communities share deep ties with their American counterparts, making this tension feel unnatural. Many continue to work across the border, fostering enduring connections. If Trump were to vanish today, I suspect sentiment would shift appreciatively, only to be disrupted by the next adversarial figure. Djuric: In Stanstead, Quebec, neighboring Derby Line, Vermont, the Canadian mayor works tirelessly to maintain amicable relations. He repeatedly reminds residents that Trump's term will expire in four years. However, the present dynamic certainly tests the U.S.-Canada bond. Interestingly, Americans on the Vermont side, seeking camaraderie, are putting up Canadian flags in solidarity. McHugh: During my travels through various border towns — Niagara Falls, Ontario, and locations in the Thousand Islands — I've heard from locals that they're now exercising caution about border crossings. On the American side, both Canadian and American flags are displayed side by side, whereas in Canada, American flags have been largely removed in favor of Canadian ones. It illustrates an intriguing contradiction — while tensions rise between governments, personal relationships across the border remain strong and, in some cases, are even fortified. Kim: Rebuilding trust will take considerable time. The emotional fallout stems not just from Canada-U.S. historical ties but also from Trump's direct ramifications, including job losses and price increases. However, I agree with Nick that when the sentiment shifts, it will be warmly welcomed. Many people express frustration towards Trump, and there's an underlying grief surrounding their relationships with the U.S. and its people — akin to lovers separated by circumstance. Before we conclude, does anyone want to offer a prediction? Taylor-Vaisey: Forecasting is fraught with peril, but here's one: perhaps the Maple Leafs will triumph in a playoff series. Just maybe. Anything can happen — a sentiment echoed within Conservative and New Democratic Party circles as they await their verdict. Djuric: The outcome is ultimately up to Canadians to determine. However, it's likely we'll see various federal party leaders resign following this election. This campaign has revolved not only around rejuvenating Canada's economy but also necessitating the revitalization of certain federal parties that may face imminent challenges. Kim: While Trump's unpredictable nature complicates foresight, he might incite some discourse by mentioning Canada once more in interviews or on social media before the election. McHugh: Canadians are notoriously cautious! Nonetheless, I'll make one prediction — though I can't guarantee it — the NDP will lose their official parliamentary status by falling below the 12 seats required, which will undeniably reshape Canadian politics and certainly impact NDP leadership. Fournier: Current statistical data suggests that the Liberals are significant favorites for a majority, though it remains within reach. For the Conservatives to take the most seats, the polling industry would need to experience unprecedented discrepancies. --- This version maintains the original intent and insights while using varied sentence structures and phrasing for a fresh presentation. Let me know if any specific elements or styles need adjustment!