The "Trump effect" has made its presence felt once more.

The "Trump effect" has made its presence felt once more.

It's difficult to envision how Mark Carney could have achieved one of the most remarkable political comebacks in recent memory without the influence of Donald Trump and his jabs about making Canada the 51st state of the U.S. Canadians experienced a blend of shock and national pride, fueled by Trump's threats to trade across the world's longest undefended border. When Justin Trudeau announced his resignation at the beginning of the year, his strained Liberal Party seemed poised for defeat at the hands of the Conservatives, led by Pierre Poilievre. However, the combination of Trump's threats and Carney's credentials as the former governor of the Canadian and U.K. central banks helped shift public sentiment in a way that Poilievre could not fully counteract. Carney clinched the leadership of his party on March 9 and called for a general election two weeks later.

The Liberals, who have been in power since 2015, are now set to govern for a bit longer, though they are likely to fall short of a majority, necessitating collaboration with opposition parties to pass budgets and other legislation. Poilievre, who seemed to be a sure bet for Canada's next leader just a year ago, is projected to lose his own seat in the election. While this doesn't automatically mean he must resign as party leader, it may complicate his ability to remain in that position.
For Carney, winning the election could be the easy part. On the campaign trail, he positioned himself as the ideal candidate to confront Trump and safeguard Canada's economy, which is significantly tied to the U.S. market.

Approximately 75% of Canada's exports head south, including most of its oil and gas. Now, Carney faces the challenge of achieving trade stability with Trump. The two leaders last connected on March 28, agreeing to initiate comprehensive discussions on trade and security once Canada's election was over. Having secured his victory, Carney's greatest challenge is just beginning. — Brian Platt