A Chinese invasion of Taiwan would end in failure and at a tremendous cost.

The Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) has conducted a major war-game simulation to assess the potential outcomes of a Chinese invasion of Taiwan in 2026. The simulation involved a range of scenarios and military capabilities and suggested that such an invasion would result in significant casualties and destruction. Despite the potential for a military victory, the costs would be substantial for all parties involved, and the likelihood of an actual victory for China is questionable.

According to the CSIS, the war-game analysis indicated that:

1. High Casualties and Damage: The conflict would result in thousands of casualties among Chinese, US, Taiwanese, and Japanese forces. Both sides would suffer significant losses, with the possibility of civilian casualties in Taiwan and damage to critical infrastructure.
2. Military Impact: The Chinese military would likely face heavy losses, particularly in naval and air forces. The simulation suggested that at least two US aircraft carriers could be sunk, and China's modern navy would be severely damaged.
3. Protracted Conflict: The war-game predicts that the conflict would be prolonged and intense, with a high probability of escalation to include missile exchanges, cyber-attacks, and possibly the involvement of other regional powers.
4. Uncertain Outcome: Despite China's numerical advantages, the simulation does not guarantee a swift or decisive victory for China due to the intervention of the US and its allies, as well as Taiwan's own defense capabilities.
5. Strategic Implications: A war over Taiwan would have profound strategic implications for the region and the world, potentially leading to a shift in the balance of power in the Pacific.

The CSIS emphasizes that while the US military would likely remain capable of conducting operations after such a conflict, it would be significantly weakened. This could serve as a deterrent for China, as it would mean that China would not only have to deal with the immediate aftermath of the conflict but also face a long-term strategic setback in the region.

However, it is essential to note that war-game simulations are not predictive but rather provide a framework for understanding potential scenarios and their implications. The actual course of events would be influenced by numerous factors, including political decisions, technological advancements, and the unpredictability of war.

The findings of the CSIS war-game underscore the complexity and seriousness of the situation surrounding Taiwan's security. The report suggests that while China's desire to unify with Taiwan is strong, the potential costs and risks of military action are substantial. It also highlights the importance of continued diplomatic efforts and strategic deterrence to prevent such a conflict from occurring.