The Canada Poll Tracker's seat projections as of April 28, 2025

The Canada Poll Tracker's seat projections as of April 28, 2025, indicate a competitive landscape for the upcoming federal election, with the Liberal Party and the Conservative Party of Canada closely matched in the national popular vote. The Liberal Party is anticipated to secure 134 seats, while the Conservative Party is forecasted to obtain 131 seats. The Bloc Québécois is expected to capture 32 seats, predominantly in Quebec.


The New Democratic Party (NDP) is projected to win 24 seats, mainly from British Columbia and Ontario, whereas the Green Party of Canada is likely to achieve 3 seats, primarily in British Columbia. Regionally, the Liberals are leading in Ontario with 54 seats, while the Conservatives hold a lead in the Prairies with 44 seats, and the Bloc Québécois is strong in Quebec with 28 seats. These projections are derived from a weighted average of recent polls conducted by reputable firms such as Nanos Research, Ipsos, and Leger Marketing. The Poll Tracker is updated daily to incorporate the latest polling data and trends. With only a few weeks left until the election, the competition is expected to remain close, as all parties concentrate on critical battleground ridings and issues to influence undecided voters.