The UK’s lonely 1.5C plan

On Monday, the  United Kingdom was the only  major economy to submit a plan  that would meet the 1.5°C target set by the Paris  Agreement. 
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The  United Kingdom's 1.5°C Plan, a Lonely Place
Seven of the  world's 10 largest economies missed  Monday's deadline to submit updated  emissions reduction plans to the United Nations — and only one, the  United Kingdom, has presented a strategy for the next decade that  meets the expectations  set by the Paris  Agreement. All countries  participating in the UN process  were required to  submit their national climate plans for the next decade by  February 10, but relatively few  have done so in time. Dozens  of other countries are expected to submit updated plans  in the next nine months before the annual  UN climate summit, known as COP30,  begins in  Brazil.
The lack of urgency among the more than 170 countries that  have not submitted what climate diplomats  call "nationally determined contributions" (NDCs) adds to concerns about the  international community's continued commitment to keeping warming well below  2°C, and ideally  1.5°C, above pre-industrial levels.  Almost all countries adopted those  goals a decade ago in the  historic agreement signed in Paris, but a series of  disappointing UN summits last year added to  the sense of backsliding. US President Donald Trump has already  begun the process of  withdrawing the world's second-largest emitter  from the global  agreement. Political leaders in Argentina, Russia and New Zealand have indicated they  want to follow  suit.

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This makes the UK a rare bright spot  in its continued pursuit of  the 1.5C  target amid rising inflation and  concerns about the cost of the green transition. Its pledge to cut carbon emissions  by 81% by 2035  compared to 1990 levels is the only national plan so far  that comes close to  meeting the Paris target, according to analysis of major  emissions by Climate Action Tracker. 

British Prime Minister Keir Starmer's government  must now  show that its climate ambitions are  sustainable and  consistent with economic  growth.
At the same time, the UK  hopes to see other countries follow  suit. The European Union, a major  player in green  energy, has yet to  submit its NDC.  Even China, the world's  biggest emitter, has not. The UN  has said most countries  are likely  to do so before the end of the  year. The UK's biggest success so far has been removing coal from the  electricity grid, a first for a G7  country. The country is now trying to repeat  the same feat with natural gas by 2030, a much  more difficult task.
Britain is aiming for 95% clean  electricity by the end of the decade, which will  initially require  much more wind and solar capacity. And to  keep some natural gas  stations running after 2030, the government  plans to rely heavily on carbon capture  technology, spending about 22 billion  pounds ($27 billion) over 25 years.
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A parliamentary committee this month described the strategy as  dangerous and  expensive. Even if carbon  capture works at scale, simply cleaning up the  electricity sector  will not be enough to meet the  UK's new climate  target. As the UK's NDC  states, emissions reductions after 2030 will have to come from consumers  switching to electric cars and heat pumps.  Policies have been put in place to  achieve this. But  implementation has been  delayed until now, particularly for heat  pumps. 
"Between 2030 and 2035, the  UK's climate  target is not  unattainable. But it  is quickly  becoming a real  challenge."

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