The world’s reaction to Trump’s tariffs is what matters next

The world's reaction to  Trump's tariffs is what matters  next.Not a valid attachment ID.
Trucks in Ciudad Juarez, Mexico,  wait in line at the Zaragoza-Ysleta border bridge to cross into the  United States.
Mexican goods  entering the  United States will  be subject to a 25%  tariff.
It was  no bluff, the tariffs are here  — and this is just the  first from the Oval Office.
The  global trading system has  never been  in this situation before. A slide  into a  broader trade conflict is  entirely possible as President Trump prepares similar tariffs  first against  Europe and then at a lower level  around the world.
But what matters as much as the  US's actions is how the rest of the world  reacts.
This, in turn, requires a  judgment about what the president is  really trying to  achieve. Trump regularly changes his  arguments for  tariffs, whether to  force diplomatic change,  address trade  imbalances, or  increase tax revenue.
These policy  goals cannot all be achieved  simultaneously.
For example, learning from the  experiences of  the "China deal" in Trump's first  term, Western diplomats have  tried to find lists of  American products that they  could buy more of, to give the White House some  victories.
Europe could say  that it is increasing its purchases of  American shipments of liquefied natural gas,  weapons, or  specialized magnets for wind  farms.
It does not matter  that these trends  are already  underway, as long as the US president can be allowed to  achieve a  "victory." But is  the measure really intended to change the trade deficit  figures?
Officially, the  reason for  Trump's decision is  to crack down on the synthetic opioid fentanyl, but  it is widely seen as a legal pretext for  "emergency" actions that would normally require a  decision by Congress.
Canada has  signaled it will take a  tough approach to Trump, best  expressed by the  country's nominee to be the next prime minister, Mark  Carney.
"We will  fight ... dollar for  dollar," he told the BBC,  echoing the fentanyl  logic and saying Canada  "supposes tyranny."
This will matter whether or not Carney succeeds Justin Trudeau and ends up chairing the G7, the group of the  world's seven largest  economies, known as "advanced." As a former Bank of  England governor, Carney  has watched Trump on the  international stage at  the G20 and G7 meetings and concluded that the  American leader  respects only  force.
He issued a coded warning  to any nation  that tries to  keep quiet and  avoid drawing the  president's attention: "Good luck."
In my recent conversations with European trade negotiators, they  emphasized cooperation and partnership, as well as  agreements with the  United States. When  pressed, they avoided  direct criticism, including the extraordinary suggestion of using tariffs against  NATO ally Denmark over the fate of  Greenland.
Reuters Tesla  CEO Elon Musk  wears a black  T-shirt and black leather jacket, standing next to US President Donald  Trump, who is wearing a blue suit, purple tie and red hat with the words  Make America Great Again in  bold letters on the  hat Reuters
Countries could take action against  Elon Musk, a close associate  of Donald Trump
The real question here is whether the rest of the world, even  if it is silent, is coordinating retaliatory tariffs on,  say, high-profile political supporters of President Trump, such as Elon Musk, which is a typical feature of  past smaller-scale conflicts.
Tesla, the electric vehicle maker led by Musk,  warned last week  about the impact of  retaliatory tariffs. All of this  is intended to raise concerns among the rival courts around the Oval  Office and  congressional interests about the impact on global  exports from American factories.
All of this is  without mentioning the impact on  domestic US  prices.
This could also  happen, in a more  roundabout way, through the application of a  tax on carbon trade  planned in various  jurisdictions.
Exactly how this  will happen will depend on  the perception of  America's residual power.
Some nations may conclude that there are other options in the  world today. As tariff threats  increase daily from many directions, the world  finds itself in uncharted  territory.

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