On Monday, the United Kingdom was the only major economy to submit a plan that would meet the 1.5°C target set by the Paris Agreement.
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The United Kingdom's 1.5°C Plan, a Lonely Place
Seven of the world's 10 largest economies missed Monday's deadline to submit updated emissions reduction plans to the United Nations — and only one, the United Kingdom, has presented a strategy for the next decade that meets the expectations set by the Paris Agreement. All countries participating in the UN process were required to submit their national climate plans for the next decade by February 10, but relatively few have done so in time. Dozens of other countries are expected to submit updated plans in the next nine months before the annual UN climate summit, known as COP30, begins in Brazil.
The lack of urgency among the more than 170 countries that have not submitted what climate diplomats call "nationally determined contributions" (NDCs) adds to concerns about the international community's continued commitment to keeping warming well below 2°C, and ideally 1.5°C, above pre-industrial levels. Almost all countries adopted those goals a decade ago in the historic agreement signed in Paris, but a series of disappointing UN summits last year added to the sense of backsliding. US President Donald Trump has already begun the process of withdrawing the world's second-largest emitter from the global agreement. Political leaders in Argentina, Russia and New Zealand have indicated they want to follow suit.
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This makes the UK a rare bright spot in its continued pursuit of the 1.5C target amid rising inflation and concerns about the cost of the green transition. Its pledge to cut carbon emissions by 81% by 2035 compared to 1990 levels is the only national plan so far that comes close to meeting the Paris target, according to analysis of major emissions by Climate Action Tracker.
British Prime Minister Keir Starmer's government must now show that its climate ambitions are sustainable and consistent with economic growth.
At the same time, the UK hopes to see other countries follow suit. The European Union, a major player in green energy, has yet to submit its NDC. Even China, the world's biggest emitter, has not. The UN has said most countries are likely to do so before the end of the year. The UK's biggest success so far has been removing coal from the electricity grid, a first for a G7 country. The country is now trying to repeat the same feat with natural gas by 2030, a much more difficult task.
Britain is aiming for 95% clean electricity by the end of the decade, which will initially require much more wind and solar capacity. And to keep some natural gas stations running after 2030, the government plans to rely heavily on carbon capture technology, spending about 22 billion pounds ($27 billion) over 25 years.
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A parliamentary committee this month described the strategy as dangerous and expensive. Even if carbon capture works at scale, simply cleaning up the electricity sector will not be enough to meet the UK's new climate target. As the UK's NDC states, emissions reductions after 2030 will have to come from consumers switching to electric cars and heat pumps. Policies have been put in place to achieve this. But implementation has been delayed until now, particularly for heat pumps.
"Between 2030 and 2035, the UK's climate target is not unattainable. But it is quickly becoming a real challenge."
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