As Vladimir Putin continues to await a call from U.S.
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President Donald Trump, a shift in the political balance in Europe could strengthen his hand in future diplomacy aimed at ending Russia's war in Ukraine.
Leaders in parts of Central and Eastern Europe have begun to break away from the united front presented by the European Union and NATO in support of Ukraine and against Russia.
Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban, the most Kremlin-friendly leader in a long time, is increasingly joining nationalists in countries such as Slovakia, Austria, Bulgaria and Croatia in calling for sanctions against Russia and military aid to Ukraine. The far-right candidate in Romania's presidential election has called Ukraine an "invented state" that will disintegrate because "the war has been lost."
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In Germany too, the so-called firewall erected by the main parties against cooperation with the staunchly pro-Russian Alternative for Germany (AfD) has been breached on migration policy in the run-up to this month's elections, with the far-right party coming in second place in the polls.
Trump is trying to push President Putin to "make a deal" to quickly end the war. He is threatening new "major" sanctions and a drop in oil prices in an attempt to destroy the Russian economy if Putin resists.
Moscow may count on being able to resist such pressure in negotiations with Trump to reinforce divisions in Europe by weakening support for Ukraine.
This could help Putin shift Trump's focus to Kiev to accept terms of a deal more favorable to Russia, knowing that the US president is already skeptical about continuing defense funding for Ukraine.
Most nationalist leaders in Europe are open admirers of Trump and are counting on him to end the war and thus strengthen their economies.
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By being able to break European unity at a critical moment, the irony is that it could give Putin the political space to continue trying to resolve the war on the battlefield.
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