Climate crisis
Hottest year on record sees global temperature rise 1.5°C for first time in 2024.
Record highs have fueled extreme weather events - and the worst is yet to come, EU data shows
Climate change pushed annual global temperatures above the internationally agreed target of 1.5°C for the first time last year, amplifying extreme weather events and causing "misery for millions" of people.
The average temperature in 2024 was 1.6°C above pre-industrial levels, according to data from the EU's Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S). This is a jump of 0.1°C compared to 2023, which was also a record year, and represents levels of heat not previously experienced by modern humans.
The warming is caused largely by the burning of fossil fuels, and the damage to life and livelihoods around the world will continue to worsen until coal, oil and gas are replaced. The Paris Agreement's 1.5°C target is measured over a decade or two, so a single year above that level doesn't mean the target has been missed, but it does show that l The climate emergency continues to intensify. Every year in the past decade has been among the 10 hottest on record, going back to 1850.
The C3S data also shows that a record 44% of the planet was affected by extreme heat stress on 10 July 2024, and the hottest day on record occurred on 22 July.
"There is now an extremely high probability that we will exceed the long-term average of 1.5°C within the Paris Agreement limit," said Dr Samantha Burgess, Deputy Director of C3S. "These high global temperatures, combined with record levels of global atmospheric water vapour in 2024, have led to unprecedented heat waves and heavy rainfall, causing misery for millions of people." »
Dr Friederike Otto, of Imperial College London, said: "This record should serve as a wake-up call. A year of extreme weather has shown how dangerous life is at 1.5°C. Floods in Valencia, hurricanes in the United States, typhoons in the Philippines and drought in the Amazon are just four disasters in the past year that have been exacerbated by climate change. There are many, many more. »
"The world does not need to find a magic solution to prevent the situation from getting worse in 2025," said Otto. "We know exactly what we need to do to move away from fossil fuels, end deforestation and make societies more resilient."
Carbon emissions in 2024 are expected to have reached a new record, meaning that there is still no sign of the transition from fossil fuels promised by the nations of the world at the meeting of the climate conference in Dubai in December 2023. The world is on a path to catastrophe. Global warming of 2.7°C by the end of the century.
The next big opportunity to act comes in February, when countries have to submit new emission reduction pledges to the UN. The likelihood of staying below the 1.5°C limit, even in the long term, looks increasingly slim. Fossil fuel emissions need to fall by 45% by 2030 to have any chance of limiting warming to 1.5°C. Several other major temperature analyses are due to be published on Friday and show similar levels of warming, including one from the UK Met Office, which also found that 2024 was above 1.5C.
Temperatures were boosted in the first half of 2024 by the natural El Niño weather phenomenon, but remained very high in the second half of the year, even as El Niño dissipated. Some scientists fear that an unexpected factor may have come into play, causing a worrying acceleration in global warming, although unusual natural variations from year to year could also be to blame. Reduced pollution from transportation and low-level clouds, which both reflect sunlight, have contributed to the additional warming, but scientists are still searching for a full explanation for the extreme temperatures of 2024.
Warmer air holds more water vapor, and the record C3S in 2024 is significant because it increases extreme precipitation and flooding. It also combines with high sea surface temperatures, which fuel large storms, to fuel destructive hurricanes and typhoons. Last year, the average person was exposed to six more weeks of dangerously hot days, intensifying the deadly impact of heat waves around the world.
The extreme climate overload from the climate crisis was already evident, with heat waves of previously impossible intensity and frequency hitting people around the world, along with more severe droughts and fires. Professor Joeri Rogelj, of Imperial College London, said: "Every fraction of a degree – whether it's 1.4°C, 1.5°C or 1.6°C – is more damaging to people and ecosystems, underscoring the need for continued efforts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. The cost of solar and wind power has fallen rapidly and is now cheaper than fossil fuels in many countries."
Professor Andrew Dessler, a climatologist at Texas A&M University in the US, has responded to the new temperature records set year after year by making the same statement to the media: "Every year for the rest of your life will be one of the coldest. "The warmest ever recorded. That means 2024 will end up being one of the coldest years of this century. Take advantage of it while you can.
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