Life expectancy in the United States is expected to stagnate until 2050
A new analysis predicts that the United States will fall to 66th out of 204 countries in the life expectancy ranking in 2050, compared to 49th in 2022.
- gettyimages-1427479920.jpg
The United States is expected to make only small gains in life expectancy in the coming decades, and this minimal improvement highlights an "alarming trajectory of health challenges" facing the country, researchers say.
Life expectancy in the United States is expected to increase from 78.3 years in 2022 to 80.4 years in 2050, according to forecasting models from the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation at the University of Washington.
For the analysis, published Thursday in The Lancet, researchers assessed the impacts of hundreds of diseases and other health risks in the United States and each state and compared them to a group of more than 200 other countries. United States, New York, Manhattan streets. Skyscrapers and crowded streets, cars and people hurrying around downtown on a sunny spring day
Related article
Life expectancy in the United States improved in 2022, but child deaths rose and drug overdoses were deadlier than ever
They found that the United States is lagging behind in life expectancy gains, putting the country behind most other high-wealth countries and some middle-income countries; In terms of overall life expectancy, the United States is projected to fall to 66th out of 204 countries assessed in 2050, compared to 49th in 2022.
Women's life expectancy in the United States is projected to improve less than that of men, narrowing the gender gap in life expectancy. The United States will move from 51st to 74th in life expectancy for women by 2050 and from 51st to 65th for men, according to IHME projections.
The slight increase in U.S. life expectancy projected for 2050 is due to a projected decline in mortality from some of the leading causes of death, including heart disease, stroke and diabetes, according to IHME.
But addressing some key risk factors could improve life expectancy in the United States even more dramatically, forecast models suggest. For example, lower levels of obesity, smoking and drug use disorders could lead to an increase of about six months in life expectancy by 2050.
NEW YORK, NY - JANUARY 24: Drug paraphernalia at a safe injection site at OnPoint NYC on Monday, January 24, 2022 in New York, NY. In 2021, New York City opened two supervised drug injection sites in the Harlem and Washington Heights neighborhoods in an effort to address rising overdose deaths. "Despite modest increases in overall life expectancy, our models predict a slowdown in health improvements due to rising rates of obesity, which is a serious risk factor for many chronic diseases and is expected to reach unprecedented levels," said Christopher Murray, director of IHME and co-author of the new study, in a press release. "The rising rates of obesity and overweight in the United States, with IHME predicting more than 260 million people will be affected by 2050, signals a public health crisis of unimaginable proportions."
GLP-1 drugs are gaining traction in the United States with promising results, but the future of their adoption remains uncertain and IHME did not include a scenario that involves these treatments as a factor.
Recent data from the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention also suggests that drug overdose deaths have begun to decline after reaching record levels, but IHME notes that drug overdose rates remain high and are likely to rise for decades. IHME estimates that the age-standardized rate of substance use disorders in the United States will be the highest in the world and more than twice that of Canada, which is the second.
[attachment deleted by admin]