Are North Korean forces participating in Russia's conflict in Ukraine?
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AFP/ED JONES On September 9, 2018, soldiers from the Korean People's Army (KPA) march across Kim Il Sung Square in Pyongyang during a large-scale demonstration.ED
Russia disputes that North Korean troops are getting ready for battle in Ukraine (picture)
In the most recent claim implying that Pyongyang is establishing a tight military partnership with the Kremlin, a Ukrainian military intelligence source informed the BBC that Russia's army is assembling a battalion of about 3,000 North Koreans.
Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov has denied claims of North Korean involvement, and the BBC has not yet seen any indication that such a sizable force is being established in Russia's Far East.
"This is American intelligence as well as British intelligence They constantly report it without offering any proof," he said.
In recent months, Moscow and Pyongyang have undoubtedly increased their levels of collaboration. Just last week, North Korean leader Kim Jong Un called Vladimir Putin his "closest comrade" in a birthday greeting However, the source just stated that they were "absolutely nowhere near 3,000" without providing a specific figure.
According to military analysts, it is unlikely that Russian army divisions will be able to smoothly integrate hundreds of North Korean soldiers.
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One analyst, who is in Russia and did not want to be identified, told the BBC, "It wasn't even that easy to include hundreds of Russian prisoners at first – and all those guys spoke Russian."
Although 3,000 would not be a significant number on the battlefield, the US shares Ukraine's concerns.
US State Department spokesman Matthew Miller described it as "a new level of desperation by Russia" in the face of fighting setbacks, saying it would "mark a significant increase in their relationship."
AFP/POOL/VLADIMIR SMIRNOV On June 19, 2024, North Korean leader Kim Jong Un and Russian President Vladimir Putin exchange toasts during a banquet held at Pyongyang's Mongnangwan banquet House.AFP/POOL/VLADIMIR SMIRNOV
On June 19, Putin and Kim Jong Un shared a toast at a Pyongyang event.
Vladimir Putin and Kim Jong Un hailed a "peaceful and defensive" agreement back in June.
Furthermore, the recent discovery of a missile in the Poltava region of Ukraine provides more proof that North Korea is providing Russia with munitions.
Actually, Pyongyang-supplied mines and shells have been mentioned since December 2023 in Telegram conversations among Russia's military communities.
Russian troops in Ukraine have frequently voiced their dissatisfaction with the quality of ammunition, claiming that dozens
North Korea joining the conflict has been mentioned by Ukraine's Volodymyr Zelensky, and this month, South Korea's defence minister declared that the likelihood of a North Korean deployment in Ukraine was "highly likely."
Over the figures involved, there is the greatest amount of uncertainty.
"A number of North Koreans have arrived," a military source in Russia's Far East told BBC Russian, adding that they were based at one of the military bases north of Vladivostok, close to Ussuriysk. of troops have suffered injuries.
Kyiv believes that a group of North Korean soldiers is training near the Mongolian border in the Ulan-Ude area before being sent to Kursk province in Russia, where Ukrainian forces invaded in August.
Valeriy Ryabykh, editor of the Ukrainian journal Defence Express, stated that "they could guard some sections of the Russian-Ukrainian border, which would free Russian units for fighting elsewhere."
"The idea that these units will show up on the front line right away is something I would rule out."
Ryabakh is not the only one who thinks thus.
KCNA On September 11, 2024, North Korean leader Kim Jong Un travels to an undisclosed site in North Korea to attend the special operations armed force training base.KCNA
It's not clear how Kim Jong-un's military forces would suit the war in Ukraine
North Korea may have some 1.28 million active soldiers but its army has no recent experience of combat operations, unlike Russia's military.
Pyongyang has pursued the old Soviet model in its armed forces but it is unclear how its main force of motorised infantry units might fit into the war in Ukraine.
Then there is the obvious language barrier and an unfamiliarity with Russian systems that would complicate any fighting roles.
That does not preclude North Korea's military taking part in Russia's full-scale war in Ukraine, but they are most recognised by experts for their engineering and construction abilities, not for fighting.
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What they do both have are shared incentives.
Pyongyang needs money and technology, Moscow needs soldiers and ammunition.
"Pyongyang would be paid well and maybe get access to Russian military technology, which otherwise Moscow would have been reluctant to transfer to North Korea," says Andrei Lankov, director of the Korea Risk Group.
"It would also give their soldiers real combat experience, but there is also the risk of exposing North Koreans to life in the West, which is a considerably more prosperous place."
For Putin, there is an urgent need to make up for significant losses during more than two and half years of war.
Valeriy Akimenko from the UK's Conflict Studies Research Centre believes deploying North Koreans would help the Russian leader deal with the previous round of mandatory mobilisation not going well.
"So he thinks, as the Russian ranks are thinned out by Ukraine, what a brilliant idea - why not let North Koreans do some of the fighting?"
President Zelensky is clearly concerned about how this hostile alliance could evolve.
There have not been Western boots on the ground in Ukraine for fear of escalation.
However, if reports of hundreds of North Koreans preparing for deployment are borne out, the idea of foreign boots on the ground in this war would appear to be less of a concern for Vladimir Putin.
Tensions in Korea are increasing.
Kim and Putin promise to support one another in preventing "aggression."
What they have in common are incentives.
Moscow needs troops and weaponry, while Pyongyang wants money and technology.
According to Andrei Lankov, director of the Korea Risk Group, "Pyongyang would receive a good salary and possibly gain access to Russian military technology, which Moscow would have been hesitant to transfer to North Korea otherwise."
"Their soldiers would also gain practical combat experience, but there is a chance that North Koreans will be exposed to the much more affluent West."
Putin has an urgent need to make up for the substantial losses he has suffered over the course of the more than 2.5-year conflict.
Valeriy Akimenko of the Conflict Studies Research Centre in the United Kingdom According to the centre, sending North Koreans would assist the Russian leader in handling the unsatisfactory results of the last wave of required mobilization.
"So, he thinks, what a great idea—why not let North Koreans do some of the fighting as Ukraine thins out the Russian ranks?"
It is obvious that President Zelensky is worried about the potential development of this antagonistic alliance.
For fear of escalation, Western forces have not been present in Ukraine.
However, it would seem that Vladimir Putin is less concerned about foreign troops fighting this battle if rumours of hundreds of North Koreans training for deployment are accurate.
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